Monday, March 7, 2011

Real Estate Forecasting

Urbanation has been tracking Toronto condominium apartment market statistics for almost 30 years, and we take pride in the quality of our data. We realize our clients review our data when making critical decisions, and we put great effort into the accuracy of our figures and our forecasts.

A lot of research firms (and non-research firms) have made condominium apartment forecasts in recent years, many of which get picked up in the media. How does an individual or firm wade through these forecasts and determine what research company to key in on? To be clearer, how accurate are these forecasts?

To determine the accuracy of Urbanation's 2010 forecast (from December 2009), here is our "2010 Forecast Report Card":

Combined New and Resale Condominium Apartment Sales
Forecast: 37,000
Actual: 37,041
Difference: 0.1%
Grade: A+

New condo sales
Forecast: 19,000
Actual: 20,491
Difference: 7.8%
Grade: A

Resale condo sales
Forecast: 18,000
Actual: 16,550
Difference: 8.1%
Grade: A

New units launched in 2010
Forecast: 21,000
Actual: 20,051
Difference: 4.5%
Grade: A+

Forecast: 17,000 (see early 2010 Globe Article link to our forecast and other research firm's predictions here)
Actual: 15,882
Difference: 6.6%
Grade: A

Forecast: 14,000
Actual: 18,221
Difference: 30.2%
Grade: D

One bad grade in the bunch - we did not anticipate lenders making construction funds as easily obtainable, especially after 2009 when just 8,392 units started!

We encourage other firms to publish their forecast report cards to bring better transparency and accountability into the field of real estate research.

For more information on Urbanation's quarterly Condominium Market Survey, please visit and follow us on Twitter for condominium updates and news

1 comment:

  1. When searching for a condominium, we all want to find the one that we think is right for us. To be able to find the right one, there are preparations that you must go through.

    Toronto Condo